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My Bowl Projections — Nov. 27
Okay. The chaos is deafening. Here are my current bowl projections for BCS and Big 12 games. For K-State fans, the key game to watch next week is Houston vs. Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Championship Game. Below my projections are the scenarios that would affect the Wildcats.
BCS Bowls
BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. West Virginia (Big East)
Sugar: Michigan (At-large) vs. **Houston** (At-large)
Rose Bowl Game: Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)
Fiesta: Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Stanford (At-large)
BOLD: Teams I consider to be locks.
ITALICS: Spot of most uncertainty/potential for K-State.
**: Spot of potential for K-State with loss by that team next week.
Big 12-affiliated Bowl Games
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Arkansas
Alamo: Kansas State vs. Washington
Insight: Baylor vs. Nebraska
Holiday: Texas vs. Utah
Texas: Texas A&M vs. Iowa
Pinstripe: Missouri vs. Rutgers
TicketCity: Iowa State vs. Southern Miss
KANSAS STATE BREAKDOWN
To go into more detail on where K-State may end up, I see things like this:
If OKLAHOMA wins… OU to Fiesta, OSU to Cotton, KSU to Alamo (this is what I predict)
If OKLAHOMA STATE wins… OSU to Fiesta, KSU to Cotton, OU to Alamo
If OKLAHOMA and SOUTHERN MISS win… OU to Fiesta, OSU to Sugar, KSU to Cotton
If OKLAHOMA STATE and SOUTHERN MISS win… OSU to Fiesta, KSU to Sugar, OU to Cotton
If OU, SOUTHERN MISS and GEORGIA win… OU to Fiesta, Georgia to Sugar, OSU to Sugar, KSU to Cotton
If OSU, SOUTHERN MISS and GEORGIA win…OSU to Fiesta, Georgia to Sugar, KSU to Cotton
If UCLA beats OREGON… UCLA to Rose, no other changes
If CLEMSON beats VIRGINIA TECH… Clemson to Orange, no other changes
If K-STATE loses to IOWA STATE… K-State to Alamo, and none of the rest of this matters.
In my eyes, KSU makes a BCS bowl if…
- Southern Miss beats Houston AND LSU beats Georgia, or
- LSU beats Georgia AND Sugar Bowl selects K-State over Michigan, or
- Georgia beats LSU AND OSU beats OU AND Sugar Bowl selects K-State over Michigan
Again, these are just my predictions. Obviously, still a lot that has yet to be determined. Exhale.
Big 12 Predictions: Week 12
Last week: 3-1
Season: 50-13 (.794)
ESPN’s David Ubben: 48-15 (.762)
Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 17 (Friday) — I love a good upset as much as anyone. But expecting the Cyclones to knock off Oklahoma State? C’mon. I don’t care that this game is in front of a national audience or that it’s on a weekday. Won’t matter. Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Co. will be focused on the road.
Texas A&M 38, Kansas 24 — Watch for this to be a closer game than many expect. I have finally started to see a little improvement from the Jayhawks, and the Aggies’ season is now all but lost. The outcome depends on how focused A&M was this week. We could see anything from a 30-point victory to a near-upset.
Missouri 34, Texas Tech 28 — What happened to the Red Raiders after their upset of Oklahoma is beyond me. But I do think this game will be one of the more competitive in the conference this weekend. Both teams are one win away from bowl eligibility, and Mizzou is riding the high of shutting down Texas. This is a sneaky-good matchup, if Texas Tech finds itself again this week.
Oklahoma 42, Baylor 24 – A month ago, this looked like one of the games of the year in the Big 12. But with Baylor falling off the pace of the conference’s elite as of late, it’s now nothing more than a moderate chance at an upset special. I don’t see it happening; the Sooners have too much to play for.
Kansas State 35, Texas 28 — My friends, the number of times I went back and forth on this game in the last few days is higher than the number of touchdowns Collin Klein has this season. I like to think K-State has Texas’ number, but as Bill Snyder said this week, the past doesn’t mean anything. However, the Longhorn offense is really struggling. And all of us have learned that having faith in Klein’s offense is generally a good idea. Note: I’ll be posting a complete breakdown of this matchup later today or tomorrow. Look for it for more details.
Big 12 Picks: Week 3
Last week: 9-1 (.900)
Season: 21-4 (.840)
Miami 31, Kansas State 17. This is K-State’s chance to prove a lot of people wrong about its team. Miami owns the matchup with their speed, but Bill Snyder usually has a solution to everything up his sleeve. The Wildcats will hang close early, but the Hurricanes pull away in the fourth quarter. Collin Klein just isn’t quite ready for this kind of stage.
Oklahoma State 38, Texas A&M 31. I think this could be the best conference game of the season. Offensive beast OSU heads to defensive monster A&M. The smart pick is to take the home team in this situation, but I’m going to give a slight edge to the Cowboys. Can’t wait to watch this one.
Baylor 48, Rice 21. Robert Griffin III has established himself as a guaranteed Heisman candidate, and the Owls will have no answer for him. This will be over early.
Texas Tech 35, Nevada 24. I haven’t seen much of Nevada this season, but the Red Raiders are always tough to keep off the scoreboard, especially at home. TTU stays undefeated with a moderate-level victory.
Oklahoma 38, Missouri 21. The Sooners are legit. Last week’s win at Florida State proved that. Missouri is still a question mark, with an overtime loss at Arizona State nothing to be ashamed of. I think OU gets the job done as long as it’s not still on a high from last Saturday.
Predictions: Week 1
Am I any good at this “analyst” stuff? Time to find out. I’ll post my predictions for all Big 12 games on here each week. Look for them to be posted in the Collegian as well.
FRIDAY
TCU 31, Baylor 21. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the week, no doubt. Can’t wait to see how Waco handles a Friday night opener against the defending Rose Bowl Champion.
SATURDAY
Missouri 34, Miami (OH) 14. Anyone else wish the Tigers were playing the “other” University of Miami? That would be a little more watchable.
Iowa State 31, Northern Iowa 14. The Cyclones have made a habit of really, really dull first games. This will be no different.
Kansas 27, McNeese State 14. Surely, KU won’t lose to another FCS opponent to begin the season. Turner Gill would be done. But you can’t eliminate that possibility with how poor the Jayhawks appear to be this season.
Kansas State 34, Eastern Kentucky 13. See my preview here.
Oklahoma State 56, Louisiana 20. Expect over 500 yards of offense for the Cowboys and this game to be over when OSU goes up 28-3 midway through the second quarter.
Texas Tech 48, Texas State 16. Another high scoring affair for the Red Raiders, who are very much used to it by now. Tommy Tuberville will make a comment after the game about how he’s never seen scoring like this in the SEC.
Oklahoma 42, Tulsa 17. The nation’s top-ranked team has a solid debut.
Texas 38, Rice 14. I’m choosing not to comment on this game. It bores the crap out of me.
SUNDAY
Texas A&M 34, SMU 24. Before the game, the SMU athletic department will tell the team, “If we beat A&M, maybe the Big 12 will let us in!”. It doesn’t quite happen.
tdreiling
