According to new projections, TCU will not qualify for a BCS bowl by moving up to 16th in the BCS Standings. It’s impossible to know for sure until the real deal happens at 7:15, but nonetheless, it’s good news for K-State fans.
The Wildcats, in that scenario, look to be the frontrunner for the last at-large spot. It would come down to K-State, Boise State and in a few projections, Baylor.
Between those three teams, the Wildcats have an advantage in two things: resume and fan base. That helps the Cats a lot.
Currently, CBS Sports and Yahoo! Sports both have KSU facing Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.
We will know more, including the chances of Oklahoma State passing Alabama for the No. 2 spot, when the Coaches Poll is released in a couple hours. Late last night, several projections had the Cowboys making the jump in what would be “the closest margin between 2 and 3 ever”.
Stay tuned. I’ll be an interesting day.
I’m going to make this clear right now: If the Sugar Bowl chooses Michigan and TCU to play each other, and Oklahoma State isn’t ranked No. 2, it will be a disgrace to college football. Period. The Wildcats have earned their spot.
Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll get it.
As it looks right now, K-State’s best chance at a BCS bid might be for Oklahoma State to pass Alabama for No. 2 in the BCS Standings. If that happened, KSU would be almost assured of a birth in the Fiesta Bowl.
If OSU stays at No. 3, as ESPN wishes, it would take the Wildcats getting chosen for the Sugar. Four teams (KSU, Michigan, TCU and Boise State) would be up for two spots.
That, of course, is assuming TCU and Michigan both reach eligibility in the standings. I think they will, and I might be wrong. IT depends on where Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Baylor, Clemson and Houston land.
I can be a pessimist, or even paranoid at times when it comes to issues like this. I apologize. It’s a character trait. But that’s a discussion for another day.
Anyway, we will find out all of this stuff for sure at 7:15 tomorrow. Here are my projections, for what they’re worth, and take ‘em with a grain of salt.
BCS National Championship — LSU vs. Alabama — The Cowboys deserve it. The voters won’t care enough.
Orange Bowl — Clemson vs. West Virginia — This matchup is assured.
Sugar Bowl — Michigan vs. TCU — All comes down to whether they reach eligibility. If one or both of them does not, K-State may be golden. But I think they both will.
Rose Bowl — Oregon vs. Wisconsin — This matchup is assured.
Fiesta Bowl — Oklahoma State vs. Stanford — Stanford is a lock. OSU will be here if they don’t pass Alabama in the BCS Standings.
I just got an interview with Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com, and discussed BCS bowl scenarios with him. The outlook is not great for the Kansas State Wildcats from a BCS perspective. This is what he told me:
TD: What are K-State’s chances of getting picked for the Sugar Bowl over Michigan?
JP: “If Michigan qualifies (for a BCS bowl) they’re in. It’s that simple. K-State and Boise State wouldn’t be chosen for a game like that above a team with a superstar player and a national brand.”
TD: How much impact does a fan base have on bowl selection, compared to the actual resume between the two teams?
JP: “Those bowl games do not care about a team ranked four or five spots ahead of them. It’s all about who has the bigger following and who will bring more fans. Is that fair? Maybe not, but it’s the way things are.”
TD: In a worst-case scenario, if K-State lost to Iowa State and Baylor beat Texas, could the Bears be picked for the Alamo over KSU?
JP: “I don’t think so. Honestly, I think K-State’s chances at the Cotton are really good (if OSU beats OU). Oklahoma is the least attractive team to the Cotton Bowl out of the Big 12, because they play Texas there every year. When you factor in K-State’s fan base, I think the Cotton would really like to take K-State if given the chance.
So, there you have it. K-State’s chances at getting the the Sugar Bowl are almost entirely dependent on Michigan staying out of the top 14 in the BCS Standings. For that to happen, K-State should be rooting for Georgia in the SEC title game (if Oklahoma State could get into Top 2), for a very close Big Ten title game, and for a Southern Miss upset of Houston. Fingers crossed.
But of course, the most important thing is….
Beat Iowa State.
For the second consecutive game, Kansas State made some very good adjustments at halftime and out-bullied their opponent in the second 20 minutes. Behind dominating, double-double performances inside by Thomas Gipson and Jamar Samuels, and very timely shot-making by Will Spradling, the Wildcats advanced to 4-0 on the season with a 69-55 victory over George Washington.
Gipson had 17 points and 13 rebounds, Samuels added 10 and 10. Meanwhile, the Wildcats used great defense during a 15-1 run early in the second half the put the game out of reach.
What I noticed:
Excellent frontcourt play. Better, perhaps, than the majority of games last season for the Cats. Things are far from perfect, but the improvement displayed tonight is an excellent sign for K-State fans. This team looked like it had some swagger at times. Besides Gipson and Samuels’ double-doubles, Jordan Henriquez added 6 points and 11 boards. Solid.
Performances from the guards were average for the most part. Spradling was a bright spot with 14 points, but his shooting percentage was slightly below where I’d like it. Also, where is Rodney McGruder? I expect him to be a leader on this team, but his 7 points on 3/11 shooting tonight make me slightly nervous.
We saw about 15 minutes of really good basketball tonight. If K-State can increase that number to 25-30 on a regular basis, it will win more than enough games for an NCAA tournament birth.
A really tough stretch continues. K-State takes on Virginia Tech in its first game away from home this weekend, before playing West Virginia next week. The Wildcats should be satisfied to go 1-1 in those games, in my opinion.