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Q&A with BCS guru: “If Michigan qualifies, they’re in”
I just got an interview with Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com, and discussed BCS bowl scenarios with him. The outlook is not great for the Kansas State Wildcats from a BCS perspective. This is what he told me:
TD: What are K-State’s chances of getting picked for the Sugar Bowl over Michigan?
JP: “If Michigan qualifies (for a BCS bowl) they’re in. It’s that simple. K-State and Boise State wouldn’t be chosen for a game like that above a team with a superstar player and a national brand.”
TD: How much impact does a fan base have on bowl selection, compared to the actual resume between the two teams?
JP: “Those bowl games do not care about a team ranked four or five spots ahead of them. It’s all about who has the bigger following and who will bring more fans. Is that fair? Maybe not, but it’s the way things are.”
TD: In a worst-case scenario, if K-State lost to Iowa State and Baylor beat Texas, could the Bears be picked for the Alamo over KSU?
JP: “I don’t think so. Honestly, I think K-State’s chances at the Cotton are really good (if OSU beats OU). Oklahoma is the least attractive team to the Cotton Bowl out of the Big 12, because they play Texas there every year. When you factor in K-State’s fan base, I think the Cotton would really like to take K-State if given the chance.
So, there you have it. K-State’s chances at getting the the Sugar Bowl are almost entirely dependent on Michigan staying out of the top 14 in the BCS Standings. For that to happen, K-State should be rooting for Georgia in the SEC title game (if Oklahoma State could get into Top 2), for a very close Big Ten title game, and for a Southern Miss upset of Houston. Fingers crossed.
But of course, the most important thing is….
Beat Iowa State.
Bowl Backgrounds: K-State history in possible destinations
A look at the experiences the Wildcats have had in each bowl game they may end up participating in this season, and the chances I predict of K-State ending up there:
Sugar Bowl (20 percent)
K-State appearances: None
Last: Never
Note: The Sugar is usually reserved for a matchup between the SEC champion and a BCS at-large school. The Big 12 hasn’t sent a team to the Sugar Bowl since Oklahoma last to LSU in the 2004 National Championship Game.
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic (35 percent)
K-State appearances: 2 (1-1)
Last: 2001 (Beat Tennessee 35-21)
Note: The Cotton Bowl credits K-State with the survival of the game, after an unexpectedly large amount of Wildcat fans flocked to Dallas for the 1997 meeting with BYU. Cotton Bowl representatives have been to several K-State games this season and have commented encouragingly about the thought of the ‘Cats playing there again.
Valero Alamo Bowl (40 percent)
K-State appearances: 1 (0-1)
Last: 1998 (Lost to Purdue 37-34)
Note: When the Wildcats last played in the Alamo Bowl in 1998, it did so without much desire to be in the game at all. K-State had fallen to Texas A&M in double-overtime weeks earlier that cost it a spot in the National Championship game.
Insight Bowl (5 percent)
K-State appearances: 2 (1-1)
Last: 2001 (Lost to Syracuse 26-3)
Note: A lackluster 6-5 regular season placed the Wildcats in the 2001 Insight.com Bowl, but since then, the game has earned more respect as a legitimate postseason destination. When K-State played Wyoming in the game in 1993, it was known as the Copper Bowl.
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